Indeed, it is probable that Hamas’ future will be largely determined in the West Bank, rather than in Gaza. Its role as a spoiler cannot be underestimated, but Hamas’ long-term fortunes depend on an irrevocable failure of the national strategy of negotiations and of the PA state- and institution-building program. If either or both of these policies succeed, Hamas’ single-minded promotion of the strategy (though certainly not always the practice) of violent resistance and insistence on the non-recognition of Israel - even in the context of Palestinian independence - will become increasingly hollow and unappealing. If the PLO and PA strategies unequivocally fail, however, there is little to prevent Hamas from inheriting practically uncontested the leadership of the Palestinian movement and transforming it from a nationalist to an Islamist one.
Hussein Ibish’s reading of the stakes involved in the battle between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, here.
Michelle Sieff has an interesting piece here in which she argues against what she sees as a partial application of human rights law to Israel’s responses to Hamas. Her main point is that the goals being pursued by an organization have to be considered when assessing what sort of response to it is justifiable and warns of the consequences if this is not done:
Instant universal condemnation of Israel, with no criticism of Hamas, after the flotilla clash with Israel’s navy, has not helped those who truly seek peace. Rather, the world has further emboldened Hamas in its rejectionist stance. “May 31 was and will be a turning point,” Haniyeh declared. “It marks the beginning of the delegitimization of the Zionist project in our country.” The Hamas leader, for sure, was not speaking only of Gaza.
A flavor of my op-ed for Fox News, which you can read in full here.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who lost authority over Gaza three years ago this month in the very bloody Hamas coup, is suddenly asserting responsibility for the 1.5 million Palestinians living there. His nemesis, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, already was way ahead in feeling the world love as European governments, in the wake of the May 31 flotilla clash, joined with the ranks of traditional Hamas backers in the Arab and Islamic worlds in calling for lifting the blockade of Gaza. President Obama, meeting with Abbas, put icing on the Hamas cake by calling the situation in Gaza “unsustainable.”
Here’s the account of the commander of the naval commandos who boarded the Mavi Marmara:
“We knew there would be resistance, but not at such a strong level,” said Captain R., who led one of the teams and was wounded in the mission. “Every [activist] that approached us wanted to kill us.”
Captain R. was the second commando to be dropped from a military helicopter onto the Turkish-flagged ship. During the mission, a large mob of the activists hurled him from the upper to lower deck of the ship.
From the Rambam Hospital in Haifa, Captain R. said that every commando who entered the ship was met by a number of activists who charged at the soldiers and attacked them. At least 75 percent of the activists took part in what the soldiers later described as a “lynch.”
“I was the second to be lowered in by rope,” said Captain R. “My comrade who had already been dropped in was surrounded by a bunch of people. It started off as a one-on-one fight, but then more and more people started jumping us. I had to fight against quite a few terrorists who were armed with knives and batons.”
The captain said that he was first forced to cock his gun and shoot once when one of the activists came toward him with a knife.
“At that point, another twenty people starting coming at me from every direction,” said Captain R. “They jumped at me and hurled me to the deck below the bridge. Then I felt a stabbing in my stomach - it was a knife. I pulled it our and somehow managed to get to the lower level. There, was another mob of people.”
Israel Navy: “Mavi Marmara, you are approaching an area of hostilities which is under a naval blockade. The Gaza area coastal region and Gaza harbor are closed to all maritime traffic. The Israeli government supports delivery of humanitarian supplies to the civilian population in the Gaza Strip and invites you to enter the Ashdod port. Delivery of supplies in accordance with the authorities’ regulations will be through the formal land crossings and under your observation, after which you can return to your home ports on the vessels on which you have arrived.”
Response: “Negative, negative.”
Of course the response was negative - because the international supporters of Hamas gathered on the Mavi Marmara were hellbent on assaulting/lynching/kidnapping IDF personnel.
As I write this the BBC is reporting that up to 19 people have been killed during the seizure of the Free Gaza Flotilla by the Israeli Navy. It also says that the “Mavi Marmara”, the flotilla’s flagship, is still not fully under Israel’s control so it’s not impossible that there will be further casualties. Some quick points…
1.
Turkey will probably break diplomatic relations with Israel over this. The convoy was supported by the Turkish government, the main charity behind the convoy is Turkish and most of the people on board the “Mavi Marmara” are Turkish. This will culminate the cooling in Israeli-Turkish relations that has been going on since the AK Party came to power in the latter country.
2.
I watched the live feed from the “Mavi Marmara” in the hours leading up to the arrival of the naval commandos. Judging from the pop-eyed rage expressed by some of those aboard towards the yahudiler I am not surprised matters have come to this. Some of the passengers were evidently longing for martyrdom. You can see one of them saying so before she left Istanbul:
Regardless of this, the deaths represent a PR disaster for Israel and it remains to be seen whether it was worth taking the inevitable risks associated with such an operation in order to keep Hamas isolated. And there’s also the question of what approach Israel will take to the next convoy, and the one after that.
3.
A number of European politicians were denied permission to board the convoy in Cyprus by that country’s legitimate government. Showing their profound concern for human rights, justice and equality they made their way to the part of the island under Turkish military occupation since 1974 - a zone which has been heavily settled by mainland Turks and from which the Greek population has been ethnically cleansed in its entirety - in order to join the flotilla from there.
Riad Malki, the PA’s Foreign Minister was in Buenos Aires yesterday and gave an interview to Pagina/12. With regard to the Hamas regime running Gaza he said the following,
If Vidal Sassoon lived in Gaza, he’d be in hiding now for two reasons. One, because he’s Jewish. Two, because he’s a hairdresser who works in women’s salons. More here. Someone please remind me: wasn’t there something, somewhere about Hamas being moderate and enlightened?
In Iran, it’s a case of escalation, escalation, escalation. The Times of London reports that “Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.” Meanwhile, the repression of dissidents takes on a crueller, uglier quality. If proof was needed that the chador is a symbol of humiliation, look no further than the photo of student leader Majid Tavakoli, forced to pose while wearing one by the regime’s thugs (a tactic that has backfired now that Majid’s male supporters are distributing photos of themselves adorned in the same garb.) Then there are the additional arrests of dissidents for allegedly tearing photos of Ayatollah Khomeini, the Islamist tyrant who seized power in 1979. Then there are the three young Americans arrested by the regime and now likely to face trial on espionage charges. Are we done? No. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal paid a visit to his paymasters over the weekend. And don’t forget Hugo Chavez; Venezuela’s answer to Robert Mugabe doesn’t want to feel left out, so he’s declaring fealty to the theocrats of Tehran too.
War, when practised by Israel, is frequently seen as having paradoxical consequences. The more often it inflicts damage and defeat on its enemies the stronger they are held to become. Never mind that Egypt and Jordan long since grew sick of defeat and signed peace treaties with the Jewish state, never mind that Syria, with the partial exception of the First Lebanon War, hasn’t risked a direct confrontation with Israel since 1973 and never mind that part of the leadership of the Palestinians accepts Israel´s existence; victory is still seen as making Israel weak and its enemies strong.
