“Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated,” Mark Twain is supposed to have quipped. Currently, the blogosphere is awash with rumors emanating from Michael Ledeen to the effect that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - aka the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran - has crossed the great divide. “According to a bulletin from the Greens (Moussavi/Karroubi et al), there are widespread rumors in the Tehran Bazaar that Khamenei has died. The Greens say they cannot confirm it, but that there is an ‘abnormal atmosphere’ in the streets, which almost certainly means there are more security people than usual,” Ledeen reports. Meanwhile, Meir Javedanfar is very skeptical, while Iran’s state-run media is downright livid at such an impertinent suggestion.
There is one small ray of light in all this - another excuse to watch…
There’s are much worse leaders in the waiting. The Iranian regime is far more flexible than the North Korean one.
Ganselmi:
Is the Iranian regime any less rigid than the North Korean or is it simply that the North Korean dictatorship is much better entrenched? The DRNK has been around since the ’50s and has survived courtesy of the patronage of Communist China. By comparison, the IRI has only been around since ‘79 and doesn’t have a powerful big brother helping it to brutally suppress the masses.
Lynne,
All good questions. The Iranian government bases its legitimacy on the sovereignty of the faqih (jurisconsult), who supposedly has a mandate to govern the Shi’a — not just Iranians — in the absence of the Twelfth Imam (while the true Imam is in a state of occultation and due to return at the time of the Apocalypse). In this sense the IRI is dependent on a cult of personality much as the North Koreans are.
But what I was saying in my admittedly cryptic comment is that the IRI elite are actually far more flexible and cleverer. They’ve realized that each time a Supreme Leader passes away, there is a potential legitimacy crisis that could severely jeopardize regime survival. They’ve been preparing for precisely such a crisis by transitioning to an IRGC-based mode of military dictatorship.
The most astute Iran watchers are reading the election coup as the final step in this transition. Not just Rafsanjani and the rest of the clerical establishment, but even Khamene’i himself could be said to have been sidestepped in the process. The leadership of this new group is much more faceless, much more ruthless, and driven by an even more radical ideology than the one espoused by the first generation of Iranian revolutionaries.
And as for your second comment, I would disagree. Tehran has serious backers in Beijing and Moscow. They support the hardliners not because of any ideological commitment, but because that allows them better access to Iranian oil.
If you’re interested in learning more about this stuff, look up a guy named Mesbah Yazdi. He is the chief theoretician and “spiritual advisor” to Ahmadinejad and the coup clique. Some say he might become the next SL, which would be terrifying. The man has a truly creepy, revolting vision for Iran and the Middle East. He is not someone you want in charge of a nuclear arsenal.
The best possible outcome is a bloody anarchic civil war. Or better yet, an IRGC junta that results in mass purges and an an even more extremist police state. We need to disabuse ourselves of the fantasy that somehow the intelligencia and the middle class in Iran will spontaneously rise up and remake the country as a west Asian version of France.
“We need to disabuse ourselves of the fantasy that somehow the intelligencia and the middle class in Iran will spontaneously rise up and remake the country as a west Asian version of France.”
ONCE AND FOR ALL: THE UPRISING IS NOT COMPOSED OF JUST THE INTELLIGENTSIA AND RICH NORTHERN TEHRANIS!
I hope you will keep posting your reports on Iran Ganselmi, they are very enlightening.
The LA Times is reporting a sucide attack in Iran on the revolutionary guards:
“Suicide bomber attacks Iran’s Guards, kills 31
A lone bomber in tribal dress infiltrates what was to have been a reconciliation meeting between Shiite and Sunni tribesmen. Five Guard commanders are killed. At least 28 people also are wounded.”
What do your sources say, Ganselmi? Is this a real attack by an insurgent group, or an attack perpetrated by the regime to use as an excuse to get rid of the opposition?
The IRI does have a history of carrying out terrorist attacks against its own officials and organs for the sole purpose of discrediting the opposition. But I understand that Jundallah, a Sunni resistance group, has taken credit for this attack.
Iran does have a substantial Sunni/Arab community in the south, and they are actively oppressed by the regime as all religious minorities are. In recent years, some Iranian Sunni have become radicalized. And the regime is now reaping what it has sown by marginalizing them.
I personally want to see Iran’s territorial integrity preserved and therefore don’t support ethno-sectarian movements like Jundallah. However, I blame the regime’s exclusionary policies for the ever-increasing ethno-sectarian tensions in Iran. The best way to preserve Iran’s territorial integrity and prevent ethno-sectarian division is to have a secular democracy that recognizes the rights of minority communities, be they Arab, Baluchi, Armenian/Christian, Kurdish, Jewish, Baha’i, etc.
Well today it seems there’s discontent in paradise. 5 senior IRCG commanders blown to Allah by a suicide bomber. Setting aside their obligatory “It’s the Great Satan/Jews/British, etc etc” it appears that there are forces at or near the top of power who are gambling all on decapitating at least some of the leadership. Should be interesting.
Thanks for your reply Ganselmi.
I wonder what you make of the following article on the attack:
“When the cat’s away the mice kill each other”
By Spengler
“Iran has blamed the United States for Sunday’s suicide bombing in Sistan-Balochistan province in which six Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders were killed, as well as 37 other people. In an indirect way, the charge is true. No one in Washington these days would dream of blowing up Iranian officials, to be sure. America’s abdication of its position as the world’s sole superpower, though, will make incidents of this sort routine.”
…….
“I suspect that Sunday’s suicide bombing targeting leaders of the Revolutionary Guards was a feint by Pakistan to test Iran’s resolve. With Iran weakened, we should expect: ,,,”
Here is the link to the article:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KJ20Ak03.html
Jacob,
I liked Goldman’s analysis until he abandoned realpolitik to attempt to psychologize Pres. Obama’s strategic vision by referring to his “abandonment” by three parents and “Communist” upbringing.