That was exactly my point. The willingness to sacrifice Shia Islam’s holiest city just goes to show the ruthlessness and moral depravity of the coup regime.

Maybe, or maybe not. I understand that the clerics in Qom aren’t exactly fans of Khameini or Ahmadinejad, and, moreover, that the persoons who chose Qom as the site did so knowing that if sacred shrines were damaged or destroyed, the news of same would help the cause immensely. Remember, we’re dealing with people who are only too happy to see willing martyrs to come forward.

But I’m convinced — and again this is mostly speculation since polling Iranians is simply impossible — that the average Iranian doesn’t want to sacrifice her individual liberties and economic prospects just so the regime can carry out the nuclear program in defiance of Great Satan. Sure, if asked in the abstract, she might say “yes Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology and even nuclear weapons.” But people aren’t pouring into the streets shouting “Yes to Nukes” but rather “Down with Dictator.”

But we do have to be sober. The opposition isn’t all of Iran. Ahmadinejad does have a base of support (some put it at 3 million and some at much higher). Decisionmakers can’t just pay attention to the opposition and I understand that. But they shouldn’t ignore or rule out the role of the opposition altogether as some “realists” have — the same “realists” who have recently suggested that the US should shoot down IAF planes over Iraq airspace if said planes were headed for Iran…

I can only speculate. But I would say yes. There are hardcore elements of the IRGC — think Vahidi the Defense Minister-Designate — that fear the days of the regime’s core revolutionary vision are numbered. They are frustrated because they are fighting an uphill battle against the nation’s demographics (70% under 30, high levels of education, etc.) and values (Iranians by and large value family and educational achievement above ideology).

These people don’t trust anyone else but Ahmadinejad to carry on the nuclear program and they’d long come to distrust even the few, nominally democratic elements of Iran’s governmental structure.

It is not just the nuke, but also the complete militarization of Iran along North Korean lines that gives them any hope of preventing the changes that are otherwise inevitable.