This is a guest post by ganselmi.
At the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh, President Obama revealed what Western intelligence agencies have apparently been aware of for some time: that the Islamic Republic has been constructing yet another secret nuclear facility - this time near the holy city of Qom, where, presumably, the proximity of so many sacred shrines would give second thoughts to anyone planning airstrikes. Earlier this week, Iranian officials admitted the existence of this pilot facility in a short, typically cryptic document filed with the IAEA.
Serious Iran watchers should not be surprised. This is just another testament to the mullah’s mastery of lying, obfuscation, and dilatory posturing vis-à-vis the international community. Nevertheless, the revelation of the Qom facility is an important milestone in the ongoing drama surrounding the dossier. It forces the international community to confront the deeply troubling fact that the IRI has continued to violate its NPT obligations since 2003 (when Tehran allegedly “came clean” and stopped all of its illegal activities).
The disclosure has likely added to the discomfort already felt not just in Tel Aviv, but also in Ankara, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo, and elsewhere. And it will perhaps push regional actors to throw in their lot with the otherwise reviled “Zionist entity” more openly than they have so far. The members of the so-called “5+1″ group too will benefit from added leverage with which to pressure Tehran to change its behavior.
But how should this development be viewed in light of the Iranian people’s ongoing uprising in response to the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently remarked, Iranians from all walks of life have demonstrated “unbelievable courage” in their willingness to face systematic torture, rape, and murder to stand up for democracy, human rights, and the sovereignty of the ballot. That courage was once again on display when the Iranian people co-opted “Quds [Jerusalem] Day” to question the regime’s willingness to waste Iran’s precious petrodollars and international reputation to support terrorist groups like HAMAS and Hizbullah.
Simply put, the Iranian people represent the West’s single greatest asset in its quest to check Iran’s nuclear program. Empowering the Iranian people is the most painless way to achieve a denuclearized Iran. Not since the Cold War then has the success or failure of a grassroots pro-democracy movement held such profound implications for global peace and security. And what the Iranians need above all else is the solidarity and understanding of the world’s democracies. Democratic governments can demonstrate their solidarity by refusing to ever take democratization off the table in their negotiations with the regime.
The Iranians’ success should not just be a matter of concern for U.S strategists or members of the pro-Israel community; it should be a rallying point for people of conscience everywhere who seek a future Middle East built on shared aspirations for peace and prosperity rather than apocalyptic ideologies and endless enmity.
“ganselmi” is the nom de guerre of Sohrab Ahmari, an Iranian-American blogger and first-year student at Northeastern University School of Law.
ganselmi, what has been on my mind: could there be a connection between this secret project which is apparently under the control of the Revolutionary Guards, and the election rigging? That is, did the IRG simply prefer that Ahmadinejad stayed in power because they think he is better for their nuclear ambitions?
Good question, Petra.
I can only speculate. But I would say yes. There are hardcore elements of the IRGC — think Vahidi the Defense Minister-Designate — that fear the days of the regime’s core revolutionary vision are numbered. They are frustrated because they are fighting an uphill battle against the nation’s demographics (70% under 30, high levels of education, etc.) and values (Iranians by and large value family and educational achievement above ideology).
These people don’t trust anyone else but Ahmadinejad to carry on the nuclear program and they’d long come to distrust even the few, nominally democratic elements of Iran’s governmental structure.
It is not just the nuke, but also the complete militarization of Iran along North Korean lines that gives them any hope of preventing the changes that are otherwise inevitable.
Thanks for the response — won’t blame it on you that it is rather depressing…
I’m well aware that the nuclear program is not necessarily unpopular in Iran, but my sense is still that, knowingly or not, Iranians are paying a high price for it, and not just in terms of international sanctions and isolation, but perhaps also in terms of domestic political repression.
It is depressing.
But I’m convinced — and again this is mostly speculation since polling Iranians is simply impossible — that the average Iranian doesn’t want to sacrifice her individual liberties and economic prospects just so the regime can carry out the nuclear program in defiance of Great Satan. Sure, if asked in the abstract, she might say “yes Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology and even nuclear weapons.” But people aren’t pouring into the streets shouting “Yes to Nukes” but rather “Down with Dictator.”
But we do have to be sober. The opposition isn’t all of Iran. Ahmadinejad does have a base of support (some put it at 3 million and some at much higher). Decisionmakers can’t just pay attention to the opposition and I understand that. But they shouldn’t ignore or rule out the role of the opposition altogether as some “realists” have — the same “realists” who have recently suggested that the US should shoot down IAF planes over Iraq airspace if said planes were headed for Iran…
“this time near the holy city of Qom, where, presumably, the proximity of so many sacred shrines would give second thoughts to anyone planning airstrikes.”
Maybe, or maybe not. I understand that the clerics in Qom aren’t exactly fans of Khameini or Ahmadinejad, and, moreover, that the persoons who chose Qom as the site did so knowing that if sacred shrines were damaged or destroyed, the news of same would help the cause immensely. Remember, we’re dealing with people who are only too happy to see willing martyrs to come forward.
Lynn,
That was exactly my point. The willingness to sacrifice Shia Islam’s holiest city just goes to show the ruthlessness and moral depravity of the coup regime.