When all the horse-trading and deal making that Israeli politicians have just plunged into is over, what will remain are the security threats both near and far - and most immediately, the Hamas regime in Gaza.
Hamas virtually eliminated its Fatah rival during the brutal civil war of 2007. Given the iron grip which Hamas maintains over the Strip, and its ruthless punishing of dissent, talk of a Fatah return seems eccentric, to say the least.
Nonetheless, Dan Diker and Khaled Abu Toameh have examined precisely that question:
After years of unsuccessful Western-backed PA security regimes, since the signing of the Oslo agreement in 1993, and through the Annapolis agreement in 2007, the Palestinian street is largely convinced that U.S. backing of the PA has sanctified brutality, state-approved “gangsterism,” and corruption in the name of stopping radicals and advancing the peace process. Palestinian public cynicism translated into Hamas’ landslide parliamentary victory in 2006 and its subsequent takeover of Gaza in 2007. This analysis, then, may serve as a basis for careful reconsideration of past misassumptions about Fatah’s security capabilities and help clarify current security realities in Gaza.
They go on to point out:
It is far from clear that under current conditions any constellation of Fatah forces could successfully restore stability in Gaza, hope for Gazans, and long-term security for Israel. Despite the important yet limited security and economic reforms PA Prime Minister Fayyad has undertaken in the West Bank, the Palestinian public, both in Gaza and the West Bank, are far from confident that Fatah is anything but an incorrigibly corrupt and brutal regime that continues to be rewarded with billions of dollars from the U.S., Europe, and Israel.
Yet they do not conclude that the current dominance of Hamas is permanent. And they offer pertinent advice for western policymakers:
Any new Fatah-related security regime and government in Gaza that receives U.S. and Western financial support must also be required to submit to unprecedented oversight of rebuilding efforts, in order to implement missing financial controls and adopt “best-practice” standards. Corrupt and brutal warlords, gangs, and militias must no longer be allowed to undermine the Palestinian national project while they remain protected, privileged and empowered by the U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority.
Ben, here are 2 interesting recent polls on the subject:
“Surveys indicates Islamist group would get 28.6 percent of vote compared with 27.9 percent for rival Fatah faction if elections were held today; Haniyeh most trusted Palestinian politician”
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3667302,00.html
And:
“Today, Hamas is supported by only 27.8% of the population in the Gaza Strip, compared to 51.5% in November, said Dr. Nabil Kukali, founder and general director of the PCPO.
Fatah’s popularity in the Hamas-controlled coastal territory lies at 42.5%, compared to 31.4% in November. … In the West Bank and east Jerusalem, Fatah is now supported by 39.2%, while Hamas is supported by only 23.7%, according to the poll. In November, Fatah was supported by 68.6% in the West Bank and east Jerusalem.”
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304721441&pagename=JPArticle%2FShowFull
Eh? Hamas could be supported by 1% of the populace and maintain power. That’s what heavily armed fascists tend to do. Moreover it’s not in Fatah’s interest to worry about Hamas. Whatever divides and distracts Israel is good for Abbas. Abbas has neither the tools nor the intent to create a functioning civil society in the West Bank, he’s simply more sophisticated to steal by other means than Hamas. So whatever Hamas can do to deflect attention from the failed state that is the West Bank too is good. Let’s not forget that Arafat’s right hand man was there while the 10 billion Euros you sent Arafat evaporated never to be seen again.