A chastened Hamas has announced a one-week ceasefire which the smaller Islamist factions in Gaza, like Islamic Jihad, have also signed up to. We can now expect adherents of the “fluffy Hamas” thesis to loudly advocate for the group’s inclusion in whatever remains of the negotiating process.

Three points to remember:

One - The Quartet (the US, the EU, Russia and the UN) have laid down very clear conditions for Hamas to become an interlocutor. Stop violence, recognize Israel, abide by existing agreements. All perfectly reasonable. Hamas hasn’t accepted a single one of those conditions.

Two - Ideologically, Hamas has not moderated. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that the group was not prepared for Israel’s sustained military campaign and is tearing itself up over this miscalculation. Part of its leadership has been eliminated and the splits inside the movement - already apparent at least one month before the Gaza operation began - appear to be deepening.

Three - The US, Israel and Egypt want to disable Hamas’s ability to fight by cracking down on the weapons smuggling routes. According one Israeli official, the pact signed between the US and Israel to prevent the supply of weapons into Gaza is similar “to the Proliferation Security Initiative, which is an agreement among several countries to prevent sensitive nuclear technology from falling into the wrong hands. That agreement allows countries to interdict shipments at sea though to be headed for hostile elements.” In that regard, those doing the interdicting might want to consult this piece from 2007, in which Michael Slackman highlights the economic benefits of weapons smuggling for the Bedouin communities living on the Egyptian side of the Gaza border.