This is a guest post by Lisa Goldman, a Canadian - Israeli journalist.
I am against the attacks on Gaza because they won’t work. Neither air force bombardments nor a ground invasion will stop the Qassams. In fact, the IAF and IDF attacks will make life more dangerous and disturbing for the residents of Sderot and the western Negev, because Hamas and Islamic Jihad will respond by increasing their rocket barrages.
Yesterday, for example, three long-distance rockets landed in Ashdod - which was previously considered out of rocket range - and a Grad landed in central Ashkelon.
Meanwhile, the home front command has absolutely no plan to provide protection for civilians living in the western Negev. There are not enough shelters. There are no evacuation plans. Civilians are just expected to fend for themselves, while the security services launch a massive operation that they have warned several times could last for weeks. Who will compensate the business owners of Ashkelon, Ashdod and Sderot? Who will take care of the families with small children who cannot afford a shelter and have no relatives to stay with outside rocket distance? Right now popular sentiment in the western Negev is with the army, but that will change in a week or two, when they are exhausted from cowering in the stairwells with screaming kids.
Al Jazeera is busy whipping up the Arab world into frenzy. Surf on over to itoot.net, the Arab bloggers’ aggregator, and see what they’re writing about Israel. And those are the intelligent, middle class Arab bloggers! They are furious at their own leaders (who hate and fear Hamas) for failing to condemn Israel sufficiently. If the operation in Gaza continues long enough, popular sentiment could destabilize Arab regimes that are friendly to the West.
Palestinians are demonstrating all over the West Bank - and they are directing their fury at Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, branding them as collaborators with Israel for not speaking out forcefully against the attacks on Gaza. This could easily explode into a third intifada.
The government and the IDF know that they cannot stop the Qassams with force. They also know that the embargo on Gaza isn’t working. They probably know that the Arab leaders would be delighted to see Israel get rid of Hamas, which is precisely why popular opinion on the Arab street is so forcefully anti-regime - especially in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood (which supports Hamas) presents a real threat to the Mubarak regime.
The Qassam barrages are certainly a casus bellum. But I don’t think that it’s an intelligent move on Israel’s part to act on that casus right now. It won’t achieve the stated goal - i.e., to stop the Qassams. And it will probably backfire in several different ways:
- further destabilizing Abbas’s regime,
- earning more ill will from the European community and the UN,
- possibly providing a catalyst for a third intifada (which would probably spread into Israel this time, because the Israeli-Arab population is seething),
- and costing many lives on both sides.
Watch what happens if/when Israeli soldiers start coming back in coffins. Then Meretz will decide it was against the invasion after all. And pretty soon the anti-war sentiment will spread to the moderate / center-left. The right will simply claim we didn’t use enough force, or that the IDF wasn’t sufficiently trained, or that it wasn’t sufficiently equipped because of budget cuts that were initiated by leftists. Or some such nonsense. No-one will dare to say, quite simply, that a conventional army cannot win in asymmetric warfare.
Inevitably, a tragic mistake similar to Qana will be made and a bloodbath of innocents will occur. A missile will miss its target and hit a school or a hospital or something like that. Thatand a series of soldier funerals (inevitably there will be some father of four who was called up for reserve duty,) will turn the Israeli moderate left against the Gaza operation. The anti-Israeli left will go apoplectic (”we are all Hamas now!”) and Al Jazeera will run 24/7 coverage with funereal background music. And watch what happens several months later, when all those Israeli reporters who gathered around the tribal bonfire during the first week of the attack suddenly declare that they were against the operation from the beginning
What can be done? I think something imaginative and unprecedented: negotiations. I bet Hamas would fail pretty quickly at governing Gaza if it didn’t have the embargo to blame for its incompetence.
“No-one will dare to say, quite simply, that a conventional army cannot win in asymmetric warfare.” Actually, a conventional army *can* win in asymmetric warfare. Here’s just one example from a google search of your assertion:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/605986/winning-an-asymmetric-war.thtml
Negotiations come after you defeat your enemy.
You’re there, I’m not, and you’ve written a lot of perceptive stuff over a long time about Israel and the region. Still, I think you’re wrong this time.
Perhaps this assault won’t work. There are never guarantees, but it seems like there’s a reasonable chance if the IDF are fast and resolute and the politicians have learned from the Lebanon war.
On the other hand, negotiations with Hamas would be doomed from the start. It has nothing to give and, if it sees that Israel is afraid to fight, no reason to give anything. Hamas may well be incapable of governing, but they always have an out: They can always find some pretext for firing rockets at Israel, or provoking a closure of the crossings, or hiding behind big, bad Israel in some other way. They don’t have to govern well, they only have to retain their grip on power — and without real external pressure, that’s pretty much a given. Meanwhile, with Israel negotiating, the US and Europe will have every justification for dropping their embargo and allowing Hamas money and materiel, which they will use to arm better, train better and dig in better.
Furthermore, if you’re looking for a way to undermine a more moderate, pragmatic alternative to Hamas, be it Fatah or anyone else, you couldn’t do it more thoroughly than by offering Hamas negotiations while they are still crowing about how they are keeping Israelis in bomb shelters.
Hamas have the automatic advantage given to insurgents: If they don’t lose, they win. Israel will have to take them on at some point — better now than later.
Truth be said, Lisa, you should be Israeli PM.
You never cease to be balanced in the most imbalanced situations. You step out of the conflict and give the world a fair overview as you connect with the real victims on both sides.
You represent good journalism and continue to inspire others on both sides of the wall.
Dear Lisa,
All of the implications that you enumerated are correct, and yet your solution cannot be executed for two simple reasons. if we were to try to negotiate now with Hammas this would be viewed upon as an Israeli weakness by the Arab side. When negotiating you must start your discussions with somewhat of a leverage or vantage point. In the world today the operation in Gaza in not considered to be leverage to Israel since the world will demonize Israel and Israel will consequently face all of the results which I’m sure you are well aware of starting from international pressure and up to financial restrictions or the flaring up of the entire area, which is hardly what Israel is after. Furthermore, if this were to take place in another “western” country such as Britain, France, the U.S.A, this action, and worse actions would have been performed long long ago.
The state of Israel has been under an on-going attack on it’s entire southern part for the past few years. This is a situation which cannot continue, unless we are willing to say that we are not responsible for the south of Israel.
Second, Hammas have not shown any diplomatic signs that they are even willing to consider negotiations with us, whereas the Israeli side has been trying that rout constantly to try to avoid a thorough operation in Gaza. When the world realizes that Israel is pro peace and not against it, the problem will be solved. However, we cannot sit on the bench while innocent civilians are being attacked constantly, day and night.
Show me the Hammas leader who is willing to negotiate with us, and I’ll do it myself.
Netta Granit.
Lisa,
It is always good to read intelligent writings. The writings that seek solutions and not spew venom of hatred, annhilation of the other or denial. You have put all the cards on the table.
Justice is achieveable that will birth peace, we need more sensible people on Israel and Palestine side.
You touched a major point that I have been writing about; Security to Israelis comes when they are comfortable dropping all the guards and caution, and as long as they are not just, it will not come. Hope to the Palestinians comes when they can reign in the leadership from useless rhetoric of annihilation of Israel - neither leadership is supported by a calm and thoughtful public on either side.
Please take a read at the following two pieces:
http://www.mikeghouse.net/Articles/Gaza.Solutions.asp
http://peaceforisrael.blogspot.com/2007/11/peace-in-israel-palestine.html
May all of us fight for Justice, not for my people, not for your people, but for all people. Then peace is automatic.
Mike ghouse
http://www.foundationforpluralism.com
http://www.WorldMuslimCongress.com
http://www.MikeGhouse.net
Mother Teresa said ” if you want to make peace, go talk with your enemy and not your friends”. The thought expressed by a few that if Israel talks with Hamas, Arabs will view it as a weakness, is wrong. Arabs know Israel’s strenght, a few extremists on their side, like on Israel’s side will subscribe to that view, most people will welcome it with caution first, but will welcome it whole heartedly.
Sixty years of listening to the extremist hawks on both sides has not produced results, it is time to listen to moderate and sensible people.
When there is justness, peace will come.
I have enjoyed this article and the ensuing conversation.
I love it when people posit that “negotiations will be viewed as a weakness on the Arab side” (a conclusion stemming, I’m sure, from their deep inside knowledge of the Arab psyche, as they watched Lawrence of Arabia twice in a row) and conclude that “therefore Israel has to strike”.
Late 80s/early 90s, Israel still viewed Fatah as a terrorist faction but nevertheless conducted secret negotiations, the foundations of the Oslo agreements. There is always a way for negotiations. They are never impossible. Saying they are is just looking for an excuse for military action.
Another point is: Israel wasn’t sitting idly in the past years, counting flying rockets. The blockade imposed on Gaza, everyone seems to forget, is also a severely hostile action.
And, Netta Granit, I thank you for your “When the world realizes that Israel is pro peace and not against it, the problem will be solved.”. You had me laughing so, so hard!
Arab extremists already consider Israel weak, what do you think they will do when Israel asks for negotiations?
The problem with the state of Israel is that it wants to have all the spoils of the war but without paying any price:
Why do you think Israel lost the war in Leb?
This time the israeli people must understand that there’s no victory without a price..now that they’re not paying everyone supports IDF but when the time comes to earn that victory with perseverance and faith then the fate of this operation will be decided.
My opinion is to conduct the military operation as fast as possible, surgically if possible, then return to the blockade for as long as it takes the palestinians in Gaza to understand that Hamas will bring them nothing but death.
Lisa, Thank you for your clairvoyance.
i believe that this is a “vote attracting” operation, the attack right before the voting period… Kadima lost a lot of ground against the Likud lately… I hope that these attacks against Hamas wont turn the next Palestinian votes toward a more Islamic more extremist party like the d’Jihadist. The difference? The Hamas is primarily a Nationalist movement (that’s why it’s hated by the rest of the Arab world) and with high values for it’s predominant religion, Islam, and D’jihad on the other side, do not see any difference between Irak, Afghanistan, Tchetchenia, Bosnia, Sudan or Palestine- all having the same common problem: Muslims attacked or oppressed by non Muslim countries or people (militarily or not). The Palestinian population lost all their hopes for an end to the Israeli occupation through Fatah. Therefore, they voted for a party that showed more teeth that Fatah, Hamas. Isn’t that Democracy? Again, the Palestinian population is composed by Muslims and Christians both very moderately religious. Let’s wait and see what President Obama has to say about this.
“Surf on over to itoot.net, the Arab bloggers’ aggregator, and see what they’re writing about Israel. And those are the intelligent, middle class Arab bloggers!” (Lisa)
You should be feeling pretty stupid having devoted so much time trying to dialogue with them.
“No-one will dare to say, quite simply, that a conventional army cannot win in asymmetric warfare.”
False. How many times we will hear this from the usual defeatists?
“What can be done? I think something imaginative and unprecedented: negotiations.”
Yes, why not. Lets discuss the terms of our surrender with an organization that in his charter says that it wants to kill all Jews.
A conventional force can win an asymmetrical war, but it must inflict losses so extensive and painful on all infrastructure (including the populace) that supports the guerrilla or “terrorist” enemy that they no longer receive support. Few governments have the stomach for that kind of total warfare anymore–probably, thanks be to G_d–though many would say that is the only way, ultimately, to deal with fanatical, radical pan-islamic terrorists or jihadis.
Talking to your enemy is a lovely platitude that presumes your enemy will not immediately kill you and silence your voice. Mother Theresa could say that because she had, at some level, armed protection and civil order to keep the wolves at bay. Anyone who hasn’t noticed that Hamas, Hezbollah, and their ilk fall into that category of functionally deaf, homicidal enemies, hasn’t been paying attention for the last 40 or so years. Time to wake up.
This brings me to the last point–the public and most media is so “news” obsessed they have no concept of tactical vs. strategic. I have no crystal ball, but I would wager that, much like the strategic choice of the U.S. to occupy Iraq (despite the thin, veil of justifications given, it was clearly a strategic decision for position in the region with nothing really to do with WMDs or bad old boogie-man Saddam), Israel’s choice to put its foot down on Gaza and Hamas now is a means to draw the pan-islamic terrorist queen bee, Iran out of her nest before she’s really ready for a conflict and before the command of U.S. forces shifts to the inexperienced and some would say down-right weak Obama. The islamists are, at bottom, fools–watch them fall for it, just like they did in Iraq.
My prayers are with all people of good will. BTW, Lisa, when will you post on your own blog–enough with the permanent Obama post.