I’ve already written a post about why the Palestinians must have their own state. To this I’d now like to add that one of the few things worse than the Palestinians not getting a state of their own soon would be them getting some kind of emaciated ghost of a state instead, an autonomous polity with a flag and an anthem but shorn of many of the basic rights and prerogatives of states.

The motive for restricting the powers of the new state would be to address the - entirely understandable - fears of Israelis that the new state would only serve as a stepping stone on the road to their destruction. That risk  certainly exists, but the prevailing situation isn’t exactly free of risks. I think that attempts to hobble the new state from the moment of its birth would do nothing to reduce the long term risks to Israel while serving as a perfect excuse for radical Palestinian groups to continue the struggle to destroy Israel.

I was put in mind of all this by an article by Amitai Etzioni in which he correctly identifies the foolishness of setting up a disarmed Palestinian state and relying on US or NATO troops to patrol the Jordan Valley.

A strong case for a two-state solution has been made, but it better be based on the Palestinians developing their own effective forces and an Israeli presence on the Jordan River. Neither can rely on the United States, beleaguered as it is, or conflict- and casualty-averse NATO to show the staying power for peacekeeping which neither mustered in Kosovo, Bosnia, or Haiti, and which they have never provided in Sudan and the Congo.

I think that’s exactly right. It’s not unknown for new states to be born with some limitations on their sovereignty - think of Ireland and Cyprus - so I think the Palestinians can reasonably be expected to put up with some kind of Israeli presence in the Jordan Valley. It’s essential, though, that they also be allowed to develop their armed forces in the manner they think most appropriate for their needs. Should they do so in a way or to an extent that any of their neigbours find threatening then they’ll have to live with the consequences, just like all the other nations in the region and wider world.

A Palestinian state is necessarily going to involve risks for a lot of people, not least its own citizens. However, this fact can’t be used as excuse to allow present arrangements to drag on eternally or for the creation of a hollow entity with the outward trappings of a nation state but with many of its freedoms sharply curtailed.