Here in New York, the Ahmadinejad show continues. Yesterday, the Iranian President met with a delegation from Neturei Karta, the haredi Jewish sect whose theology makes submission the ultimate virtue (the State of Israel is an abomination, Jews should be the meek, loyal subjects of whomever happens to be ruling them.) Tonight, he will sit down for an iftar dinner sponsored by the American Friends Service Committee (AFSC), aka The Quakers.
The AFSC’s announcement of the event - twenty-four hours after Ahmadinejad delivered a rambling speech at the UN which zigzagged from God’s grand design to “Zionist domination” of financial and monetary centers - has more than a touch of comedy about it. “A major purpose is to continue dialogue with the Iranian people and their president,” gushed the organization’s General Secretray, Mary Ellen Mcnish. “Please hold us in the light as we endeavor to build bridges of understanding.”
In drawing that seamless link between the president and the people, the AFSC appears to have been suckered by Ahmadinejad’s line that in Iran, “freedom is absolute, and it is the law that rules.” Others are less sanguine. Hooman Majd, for example, observed that Ahmadinejad’s rhetorical antics were deployed with a domestic audience in mind, given the prospect that he could face a challenge next year from his predecessor, Mohammed Khatami.
Ahmadinejad knows that his UN speech “plays well to a domestic audience predisposed to believe that American foreign policy is hegemonic by nature,” wrote Majd. “Ahmadinejad also knows that the anti-Zionist rhetoric plays well in Iran, as it does across the Arab world. Only the intellectual and highly educated classes in the region find it self-defeating if not noxious - and the Iranians in this class are in any event unlikely to be voting for him in 2009. Well aware of a powerful political movement back home to challenge him for the presidency next June, he likes to use his visits to New York to burnish his image as a defender of Iranian rights. Nor does it hurt to have on display his status as a world leader afforded wide media coverage, his cultivated image of piety, and his willingness to engage Americans and even the U.S. government.”
It is not, then, a particularly dignified spectacle: insipid peaceniks fawning over a tyrant engaged in crude electioneering who can always roll out the militias if things don’t go his way. But in the broad scheme of things, that is incidental.
They key point which the AFSC doesn’t appear to realize is that the world has been conducting a dialogue with Iran for quite some time. The EU, the IAEA, various UN envoys and even the US have all sat down with Tehran’s theocrats to try and bring the crisis over the nuclear program to an end.
Thusfar, those efforts have failed. And now, the EU is warning that Iran is coming closer to a nuclear warhead. David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, has analyzed the data on uranium enrichment contained an IAEA report issued yesterday. As Reuters reports: “To date, Iran has produced nearly 1,000 pounds of low-enriched uranium, said the report — close to what Albright says is the 1,500-pound minimum needed to produce the 45-60 pounds needed for a simple nuclear bomb under optimal conditions. And with Iran’s centrifuges running ever more smoothly, it ‘is progressing toward this capability and can be expected to reach it in six months to two years,’ says Albright.
We are, then, nearing the point of no return. At the same time, it is painfully clear that cogent policy options are in short supply. The attention focused upon the worsening global financial crisis, and the massive strains that dealing with it will place on the US Treasury, could further ease Iran’s path to nuclear status.
It is sobering to note that Michael Rubin, writing in Jane’s Intelligence Review, is examining scenarios for what might happen after Iran produces a nuclear warhead. Rubin argues that the “containment” strategy purused by the US during the Cold War might be wheeled out again.
“The containment policy would not seek to deter use of nuclear weapons by Iran or its allies,” Rubin writes. “Washington believes itself able to deter Tehran from the use of nuclear weapons with its own advanced, extensive and secure nuclear arsenal. Rather, containment would attempt to prevent an Iran emboldened by nuclear weapons using its proxies or conventional forces in regional operations to extend the country’s influence.”
Rubin, however, is pessimistic when it comes to current preparations for containment:
“Neither the Bush administration, candidates to succeed him, nor Congress have yet proposed streamlining of the weapons procurement process, augmented deployments of forces, especially air force and navy, to the region, upgrading of existing facilities or establishment of new bases, or re-prioritisation of security and democracy concerns along Iran’s northern flank. This suggests that the US currently remains ill prepared for any containment strategy, and is unlikely to be in a position to effectively contain a nuclear Iran in coming years.”
If Rubin is correct, then Ahmadinejad’s future visits to the UN will take on a quite different meaning.


In a piece
http://tinyurl.com/steelewrongonbombs
on a related matter here Jonathan Steele confirms that his capacities as a military analyst are on a par with his ability to think seriously about politics.
He says,
“The US announced two weeks ago that it would sell Israel 1,000 bunker-busting bombs. The move was interpreted by some analysts as a consolation prize for Israel after Bush told Olmert of his opposition to an attack on Iran. But it could also enhance Israel’s attack options in case the next US president revives the military option.
The guided bomb unit-39 (GBU-39) has a penetration capacity equivalent to a one-tonne bomb. Israel already has some bunker-busters.”
As the dogs on the streets know, the GBU-39 has only limited capacity to penetrate concrete and was designed to allow aircraft to carry more, smaller and more accurate bombs that would do the same damage for less weight and would have a greater stand off capability. It wouldn’t be of any use against targets buried under many metres of reinforced concrete but will come in dead handy should push come to shove in south Lebanon again.
You can see a very nice video of a GBU-39 penetrating an aircraft shelter here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfRWh2FTZks
Note blast being reflected back off the inside walls of the shelter.
The real bunker-buster is the GBU-28, one hundred of which Israel is believed to have bought in 2005
Has anyone seen Juan Cole’s disgusting article in Salon defending Ahamadinejad’s vison of Zionism and Israel?
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/09/24/ahmadinejad/
“Committed Zionists, that is to say, Jewish nationalists, who believe that Israel must remain a Jewish-majority state, often see the advocacy of a one-state solution (in which Israeli Jews might be reduced to a simple majority or even only a plurality of the population) as a dire threat to the Jewish people. They are also known to smear anyone who demurs from their rigid conception of nationalism as an anti-Semite or even a terrorist. However, neither their conviction that any criticism of Israel must be prohibited, nor their insistence on a state dominated by a single ethnicity, nor their often unpleasant tactics of the destruction of reputations should stand in the way of Americans seeking an unblinkered understanding of contemporary Iran and pursuing American interests in regard to relations with Tehran.”
Cole is endorsing Ahamadinejad’s view expressed in his speech at the UN that a small clique of Zionists control the US.
Not surprisingly he never mentions that speech at the United Nations.
To Juan Cole the Iranian thug in chief is innocent of antisemitism, it’s the Zionist Jews who are guilty of pretty much everything Ahmadinejad says they are guilty of.
More great news from Iran:
“Iran students unveil book mocking Holocaust”
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080926111949.vk2p8oxk&show_article=1&lst=1
Here’s another news item to follow:
U.S. “peace” groups organized a meeting with Ahmadinejad this week in NY. Info here: http://forusa.org/programs/iran/2008dialogue.htm
A follow-up meeting will also be held. Info here: http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0925/p02s03-usgn.html
more info on the meetings:
From The Nation:
Ahmadinejad Meets US Peace Movement by Robert Dryfus
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/36429/ahmadinejad_meets_us_peace_movement
From U.S. News and World Report:
Iran’s President Says United States Too Weak to Attack Iran
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/2008/09/25/irans-president-says-united-states-too-weak-to-attack-iran.html
From Code Pink:
Official release: CODEPINK activists and other peace organizations meet with
Iranian president in New York
http://codepink4peace.org/blog/2008/09/official-release-leading-codepink-activists-and-other-peace-organizations-meet-with-iranian-president-in-new-york/